Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.127649 4.575793 5.115324 5.835209 6.811737 8.167998 10.385611
2025-01-05 3.465430 3.963429 4.609939 5.565723 7.073122 9.722564 16.542810
2025-01-12 3.062056 3.557703 4.227023 5.275509 7.094596 10.924372 28.096499
2025-01-19 2.820514 3.316935 4.008339 5.144376 7.291143 12.765042 121.217466
2025-01-26 2.718393 3.246016 4.010775 5.351648 8.231687 18.870651 NaN
2025-02-02 2.665243 3.233122 4.091755 5.711904 9.817924 44.668699 NaN
2025-02-09 2.561266 3.132878 4.017006 5.756163 10.658163 293.857178 NaN
2025-02-16 2.478397 3.055174 3.966753 5.835159 11.751216 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.353193 2.903194 3.774437 5.568099 11.323669 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.286569 2.836448 3.720988 5.598212 12.229728 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.220056 2.765042 3.651777 5.577724 12.944475 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.140587 2.668698 3.530400 5.412834 12.764785 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.110799 2.651686 3.553781 5.617412 15.292790 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.025973 2.542698 3.402118 5.356531 14.290743 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.945476 2.437664 3.252404 5.086614 13.128156 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.888674 2.368379 3.164283 4.964855 13.018516 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.873804 2.365276 3.196473 5.156647 15.737971 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.873125 2.384763 3.272200 5.488529 22.197834 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.842264 2.352848 3.246789 5.529167 25.831661 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.816261 2.327714 3.232574 5.601628 32.127334 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.763179 2.255353 3.121093 5.356280 27.233483 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.737445 2.228030 3.097528 5.383998 32.198991 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.709093 2.195208 3.060991 5.365141 36.429490 NaN NaN